NCAA Tournament March Madness Bubble Watch: Fresno St

NCAA Tournament March Madness

#174 Fresno St

Bubble Watch | Bracketology

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Projection: need to automatically qualify

Fresno State’s résumé reads like a team with flashes of toughness and too many self-inflicted setbacks, with a neutral-site rout of Pepperdine and tight wins over Utah Valley and SF Austin showing it can close games while a humbling night at Arkansas and road losses at CS Northridge and at UNLV expose how vulnerable it is away from home. Damage from surprising defeats to SC Upstate and UC San Diego weighs heavily because those results are hard to overcome without big wins, and the offense has been inconsistent enough that the team leans on a steadier defensive profile to stay competitive. The path forward is clear: meaningful victories at home against Utah State and Nevada or a signature road result at San Diego State would change the narrative, whereas more losses on the road would leave the resume short; midweek opportunities against Air Force and San Jose State are chances to rebuild momentum but won’t replace the value of quality wins in hostile venues.

Date	Opponent	Ranking	Outcome
11/5	SC Upstate	259	L67-66
11/8	Long Beach St	263	W82-62
11/12	UC San Diego	90	L78-73
11/15	Utah Valley	83	W75-74
11/18	SF Austin	138	W80-78
11/21	New Orleans	221	W85-76
11/26	(N)Pepperdine	256	W76-53
11/30	CS Bakersfield	314	L76-71
12/6	@Arkansas	26	L82-58
12/10	@CS Northridge	212	L89-87
12/20	@UNLV	142	L84-72
12/30	Utah St	28	14%
1/3	Nevada	85	33%
1/6	@San Jose St	196	43%
1/10	@San Diego St	52	9%
1/13	Colorado St	78	31%
1/17	Wyoming	95	38%
1/21	@New Mexico	71	13%
1/24	Grand Canyon	87	34%
1/31	@Air Force	324	71%
2/3	UNLV	142	52%
2/7	@Nevada	85	16%
2/10	@Utah St	28	5%
2/14	Air Force	324	87%
2/17	@Wyoming	95	19%
2/21	New Mexico	71	29%
2/24	@Colorado St	78	14%
2/28	Boise St	55	23%
3/3	San Jose St	196	65%
3/7	@Grand Canyon	87	16%